While Disasters Loom, Government Fiddles

The earthquake that struck Chile on February 27 was sudden. The ground shuddered without warning. The devastation was immediate. Like all natural calamities it was random, rapid, and beyond human control.

Disasters come in many shapes, however. Not only are there tremors and storms, there are also man-made tempests that you can see coming from miles and miles away. And these events can be just as ruinous to an economy, just as deadly to human life, just as destabilizing to the international system as a tsunami. Even more so.

The difference? Advanced democracies hedge against whatever nature might throw at them. They establish building codes and draft emergency protocols. They prepare for the crises they know will arrive, even if they do not know the exact times and places.

Yet when it comes to the disasters that result from human activity, disasters that are long in the making, we turn a blind eye. A few brave voices may sound the alarm. But no one really listens. The individuals who benefit from the current arrangements offer excuse after excuse. The situation can be contained, they say. No need to be proactive. No need for boldness.

Consider the federal budget. Its condition is perilous. Set aside the debate over which party is responsible for the record deficits and debt—the answer is both—and the question becomes: Which party has the political imagination and the political courage required to address the situation and make the American welfare state sustainable?

Sadly, the answer is neither. One party is afraid that promising less to future retirees or raising the retirement age or indexing benefits to income will dash its chances in the November elections. The other wants to spend even more money the government does not have, because it does not believe there is any problem that taxing the rich can’t fix.

But there is a problem. A big problem. Greece and California’s present is America’s future. As it stands, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and debt service constitute more than 60 percent of all government expenditure. The number is set to rise to more than 75 percent within a decade. Left unchecked, these four items will consume the entire federal budget by mid-century. By that time America likely will have experienced its first debt crisis. High interest rates? Inflation? They are coming.

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