Surging Federal Expenditures, Collapsing Tax Revenue...These Are Not Signs Of A Strong Economy

Typically in times of strong economic activity, tax revenues rise and federal government spending is flat or even declines. Times of economic weakness (usually recognized as recessions) see the opposite. The chart below shows the year over year change (quarterly basis) in Federal Government expenditures (blue line), federal tax revenue (black line), and household net worth (yellow columns), plus shaded areas are recessions. The current period of surging federal government expenditures, collapsing tax revenues, amid surging household wealth is "unique".

Focusing on the 1970 through 1994 period, the chart below shows the interplay of goosing federal spending while tax revenues (and economic activity slow). This is typically also associated with periods of declining or low growth household net worth.

Focusing on 1995 through Q3 of 2018, chart below details the surge in federal spending, tanking tax revenues, coincident with declines in household net worth...until now?!? 2011 to present is the period with the greatest wealth creation growth in the nations history, yet during this period of economic strength, growth in federal tax receipts has been consistently decelerating...and even prior to the Trump tax cuts had already turned negative. Since the tax cuts, tax receipts are collapsing while federal spending is surging...hallmarks of what typically takes place during a recession, not the greatest wealth creation in this nations history. The federal government is already red-lining stimulus...before a slowdown or recession has even officially begun.

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