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Monday, December 24, 2018

America Is Not the Fifth Most Dangerous Country for Journalists, You Idiots

This blog is the spiritual successor to my previous similarly titled blog post that debunked a widely-reported study claiming America was one of the top ten most dangerous countries for women. As I pointed out at the time, the report heavily weighted the subjective judgements of "experts." The result is that a bunch of Westerners polled at the height of the #MeToo failed to look beyond their bubble and declared the U.S. the third-worst country in the world for "sexual violence." Seriously.

Now we have another drastic finding being picked up and spread by the media.

These stories are based on a report put out by Reporters Without Borders, a group that does a lot of good calling attention to threats to journalism worldwide. Unlike the violence against women report, it actually relies on things like numbers and data. So there's that.

What the report actually found was, yes, the U.S. had the fifth-most journalists killed in the line of duty in 2018, tied with India and behind Afghanistan, Syria, Mexico, and Yemen. But it's mathematically illiterate to take that datapoint and claiming it proves more abstractly America is the fifth "most dangerous country for journalists," behind countries such as Russia and North Korea.

First, it makes little sense to use the raw number of deaths in country-by-country comparisons, rather than the rate of journalists killed. The U.S is the third-most-populous country in the world. Even if the rate of journalist deaths remained consistent across all countries, the U.S. would rank in the top five of total deaths. It might sound bad to hear the U.S. had six times as many journalists killed this year as Slovakia, but when the U.S. has around sixty times the population, Slovakia is actually ten times more dangerous.

Second (and I don't want to come across as glib here, because even one death is a tragedy), the grand total of journalists killed in the U.S. this year was six. The global total was sixty-three. The death of a journalist is a very, very rare event, rare enough that even a small number of unlikely incidents is enough to catapult a nation into the ranks of the "most dangerous."

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