Never Mind the Polls, This Computer Model Projects GOP Win in 2016

A Republican will win the presidential election next year, according to a computer model projection by Reuters.

Two factors weighed heavily in the model's conclusion, one of them being dissatisfaction with President Obama.

First, there's a historical trend of voters not backing the party in power when the incumbent isn't up for re-election. Reuters said a successor candidate is three times less likely to win.

Second, the model found that a sitting president generally must have an approval rating of 55% for a successor candidate to win, and right now President Obama falls 10 points short of that.

So why trust a computer when we have non-stop polling to tell us who leads the pack?

Because polls are actually pretty inaccurate, according to Reuters, and on average are wrong by 8% compared to the outcome of an election. That's a wider gap than you often see between candidates in the general election.

More