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Saturday, April 11, 2015

Iran Is Methodical and Rational

At the heart of the concerns surrounding the deal with Iran is a simple question: Is Iran rational? The answer for many critics of the deal is self-evident.

The Iranians are "apocalyptic," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has often said, warning that you can't "bet on their rationality." Sen. Lindsey Graham says "I think they're crazy." The Iranian government, Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon reaffirmed recently, is a "messianic and apocalyptic regime."

And yet, these same critics' preferred policy is one that relies on Iran's rationality. The alternative to the deal forged by Iran and the six great powers is not war, they insist, but rather to ratchet up the pressure and demand more concessions from Tehran.

So, this crazy, apocalyptic band of mullahs will, when faced with a few more sanctions, calmly calculate the costs and benefits and yield in a predictable way to more pressure.

Or as J.J. Goldberg writes in the Forward, "Apparently they're irrational enough to welcome nuclear Armageddon, but rational enough to yield to economic punishment." (This point is also well made by Vox.com's Max Fisher.)

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