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Saturday, January 13, 2018

The Next Financial Crisis Will Be Worse Than the Last One

We made it through 2017.

And if you look at the stock and asset markets, as Donald Trump tends to do (and as Barack Obama did, too), you’d think all is fine with the world.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 24% last year. The Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index rose 6.20%. The price of one bitcoin rose about 1,646%.

And so far 2018 has been more of the same.

On the flip side of that euphoria however, is the fact that the median wage rose just 2.4% last year and has remained effectively stagnant relative to inflation. And although the unemployment rate fell to a 17-year low of 4.1%, the labor force participation rate dropped to 62.7%, its lowest level in nearly four decades.

That’s particularly difficult for new entrants to the workforce, such as students graduating under a $1.3 trillion pile of student loan debt. (Not to worry though: Goldman Sachs is promoting a way to profit from this debt by stuffing it into other assets and selling those off to investors, a la shades of the subprime mortgage crisis.)

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1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The stock market hit new highs during the Clinton years too, especially in the tech heavy NASDAQ. That bubble burst too. Dow 25,000 and more? Take profits and let initial investments ride. Well that is if you have money in the market. Too bad if you aren't a business owner/ slumlord or attorney (or both). They are the ones benefiting from the tax reform.