Dr. Hoffman: What we know about the COVID-19 pandemic

There’s a lot to report here. Today, I’ll try to impart some of the latest facts about the COVID-19 (aka “coronavirus”) pandemic, although things are moving really fast.

In fact, they’re moving so swiftly that you may have noticed this newsletter is coming to you a few days early. As you know, I strive to keep all my readers informed on the latest health news, so in an effort to make sure you’re getting the most up-to-date information, we’ve tightened the production of my weekly newsletter to provide the shortest turnaround between when I write my article and when you receive it. As such, in the coming weeks, you may notice that you receive the newsletter earlier in the week, or even more than once per week, as the developments in our knowledge demand. I hope you’ll bear with the deviations from our usual schedule, and that you find these newsletters helpful and informative in these unpredictable times. I also encourage you share this newsletter with your loved ones to keep them informed.

Without further ado, here’s the latest news on COVID-19:

How severe is it? Very. I posted a special podcast Sunday with Dr. Leo Galland, a highly-respected veteran integrative practitioner who believes we should prepare for the worst. He estimates that within months, the majority of Americans will contract coronavirus infections, and the death rate will be around 1%—more in the frail elderly and those with predisposing conditions like diabetes, hypertension, lung disease, or with deliberate immune-suppression due to chemo or radiation, or medications like steroids and biologics now used for autoimmune conditions or to prevent organ transplant rejection. That means that the death toll could rise into the millions.

He, and other health experts, believe it’s just a matter of simple math. The transmissibility of COVID-19 has been calculated to be 3.58, which means that every individual who is infectious has the ability to transmit the virus to 3+ individuals. The concern is that at least 10% of carriers may remain asymptomatic and are “silent spreaders”. So just sequestering ill people won’t halt the transmission of the disease. That’s why governments are stampeding to initiate total lockdowns to stanch the spread.

Let’s do the math. Rounding off to a transmission rate of 3, stating with one errant spring breaker or returning Mardi Gras celebrant, and you get 3 additional infections. 3—>9—>27—>81—>243—>729 . . . you see where this is going.

Hence the need to break the chain of transmission by social distancing, frequent and thorough handwashing, and keeping surfaces clean.

Of course, we must temper doomsday scenarios with some valid counter-arguments...

There's a good analysis here