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Thursday, November 12, 2015

Wholesale Inventories Have Never Been Higher Relative To Sales, Ever

Having risen to its highest level since the middle of the last two recessions, wholesale inventories-to-sales ratio remains at cycle highs at 1.31x. With wholesale sales and inventories both rising 0.5% (both more than expected), however, the absolute difference between sales and inventories has never been higher, leaving either major inventory liquidation ahead (or a miracle in sales). Wholesale inventories have now risen 4.7% YoY, as Sales have fallen 3.9% YoY. Finally, Auto inventories-to-sales ratio dropped very modestly (thanks to the surge in sales), but remains deep in 2008/9 crisis territory.

If we keep building it... they are just not coming...
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4 comments:

  1. AnonymousNovember 12, 2015 at 7:25 PM

    Leading economists are predicting another recession in the next year. So much so that it was part of a question posed to a candidate on the last debate. There is a
    Reason fuel prices are so low and fuel inventories are high.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousNovember 12, 2015 at 7:34 PM

    Yes...inventories ALWAYS build before Christmas. No need for the fear mongering.

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousNovember 12, 2015 at 8:17 PM

    A month ago the post said that the inventories were way down. Looks like they fluctuate like, you know, when demand changes or is anticipated to change.

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousNovember 12, 2015 at 9:23 PM

    Folks the "economist" aren't telling you anything you shouldn't already see for yourself. Record market rallies, which hopefully you rode, lead to market declines, which hopefully you are in position to sell. Missed this one? Well learn your lesson and catch the next cycle

    ReplyDelete

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