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Wednesday, November 07, 2012

The Lull Before The Social Storm


Vast social revolutions and wars are often preceded by periods of giving up on reforms, despairing withdrawal from public life by the best and brightest, and even peacefulness which seems to have become the normal condition in spite of deep conflicts and growing crises beneath the surfaces of public life. Often, earlier periods of intense conflicts and crises have been overcome and resolved, so it comes to look like that is the normal in life. This lulls most people into assuming their worse fears cannot happen, but this leads them to lowering their guards against growing conflicts and crises, so small ones can more easily cascade down into massive ones. If people expected they could become vast wars or revolutions or implosions, they would take more precautions to prevent that. But when lulled in expecting the worst cannot happen, the worst than they could ever imagine often explodes suddenly.

The cataclysmic French Revolution came after many decades of attempted reforms and conflicts which people had come to think of as unending. It started with new attempts at reforms, then incidents that did not seem so important, then all of it a sudden it exploded. WWI came after so many decades of peace in Europe, in spite of imperial conflicts around the world and an arms race, that most people thought a major war was impossible. Then a single murder in the far away Balkans set in motion an explosive cascade of events that led to a cataclysmic war. The Russian Revolution was preceded by such a long "lull" encouraged by European peace and reforms by the tsar that even Lenin was near despair and was living abroad. After several years of WWI and growing poverty at home, the Russian front imploded and a small event at home triggered a revolution that started small and democratic and then exploded into one of the vastest social revolutions in history. The beginning of WWII on the crucial German-French front was so quiet for so many months after France and Britain had declared war on Germany after it invaded Poland that it was called the "Sitzen Krieg" in Germany, the sit-down war, then it exploded as Germany invaded through the Ardennes. This was repeated near the end of the war as Germany built up its forces secretly for attacking through the Ardennes again.

The American Revolution looked very unlikely until that fateful British march to Concord and Lexington to enforce gun control laws. Then it exploded. The conflicts between the North and South had been so intense for so many decades, off and on, and then resolved again and again by major compromises that the Ante-Bellum period of the 1850's seemed another replay of that scenario. Then all of a sudden there was a small incident near Charleston, moves to secession, calling up the Northern troops and an explosion of war vastly more ghastly than Americans imagined possible. War between Japan and Germany and the U.S. had been put off so many times and so long that Pearl Harbor came as quite a shock to most Americans. The 9/11 attacks on the U.S. were just as shocking all over again.

14 comments:

  1. Get ready its not far off if Obama has his way it be sooner than later.

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  2. 4:52 I could not agree more with you.

    The socialist trend goes against the 'grain' of US tradition.

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  3. OMG! You guys are lunatics. Why not crawl back under that rock you came from before you piss yourself with fright.

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  4. 5:12 PM

    Why don't you open your eyes?

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  5. Civil was between the North and South this war will be between the Right and the Left we are more divided than we were in 2008 thanks to Dictator Obama and he wants this war more than anybody.

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  6. 5:12....you ain't been payin' much attention, huh?

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  7. You are all crazy to think this way. The People have spoken.. Obama a won significantly in electoral college and won the popular vote. I'm sure most of you complaint on here are older white men.

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  8. Please, please...not four more years of this. Get organized, elect people, run ballot initiatives, or just chill out. Something, anything other than this seditious, treasonous bulls--t that continues to tear at the fabric of our country.

    Find the things about Obama's agenda you can work with, oppose the things you can't, but knock it off with the "blood of tyrants" garbage.

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  9. Joe does a democratic wicomico county mean you will not be elected mayor?

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  10. Anonymous Anonymous said...
    OMG! You guys are lunatics. Why not crawl back under that rock you came from before you piss yourself with fright.

    November 7, 2012 5:12 PM

    No my friend you are the lunatic and your head has been stuck so far up your arse you have no clue what is going on around you.

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  11. anonymous 7:11, There were many similar comments like yours that came in yesterday BEFORE the final numbers came in from Wicomico County. When the final numbers came in, the majority of voters actually voted for Romney, NOT Obama.

    The Mayoral election is a non partison election, yet Ireton treats it differently.


    Nevertheless, the voters have made it clear, they are open to whomever is best for the job.

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  12. , but knock it off with the "blood of tyrants" garbage.

    November 7, 2012 7:09 PM

    First I heard of it. Or are you referring to 'the tree of liberty has to be refreshed with the blood of patriots now and then'?

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  13. Nevertheless, the voters have made it clear, they are open to whomever is best for the job.

    November 7, 2012 8:07 PM

    It would be far easier to limit and undo the follies of one man, rather than change the hearts, minds and natural instincts of over 60,217,329 men, women and children… Yes, children. Children who see nothing wrong in demanding that their neighbor who puts in three times the hours they do at work pay for their food, cell phone and even birth control.

    America’s problem is far more serious than a Commander-in-Chief whose administration condemned free speech, added more to the national debt in one term than the 43 Presidencies before him had in over 200 year, and made a downright vulgar joke about a dead Navy Seal to the soldier’s own father. America’s problem is that over half her people saw nothing wrong with this.

    We have reached a point in American history where national politics have forever changed. For the first time in the lifetime of this country, the majority of voters are placing their own selfish interests above the interests of their country.

    As one writer stated, “Blaming the Prince of the Fools should not blind anyone to the vast Confederacy of Fools that made him their prince. The Republic can survive a Barack Obama. It is less likely to survive the multitude of idiots such as those who made him their President.”

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  14. rush said it best; it's hard to defeat santa. to those of you who voted for obama; remember what the government "gives" you, they can take away at any time. the party will be over soon enough and then the streets will not be pretty. freddie the free loader will be angry to, to say the least and he won't be able to support himself because he's not used to making his own way without taking from others.

    when the government "gives away" anything; they are giving what i paid for. not good in any case.

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