Two new studies suggest that President Trump was right in early March when he guessed the fatality rate for coronavirus is under 1 percent.
In early March, President Donald Trump was lambasted for saying on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show that he had a hunch the coronavirus fatality rate, which the World Health Organization pegged then at 3 to 4 percent, was in fact much lower, under 1 percent. Many commentators, myself included pointed out that the beginning of a pandemic medical crisis was not the time to be floating hunches. But, as we always knew was possible, it looks now like the president might well have been right.
New data from random antibody tests conducted in New York State suggest that as many as 2.7 million people statewide have had the coronavirus. That along with the just over 15,000 deaths that have occurred leads to a fatality rate for the virus of .5 percent according to Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
Here is what Trump said on March 4:
“Well, I think the 3.4 percent is really a false number. Now, and this is just my hunch, and — but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this. Because a lot people will have this and it’s very mild. They’ll get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor.”
He went on to say:
“I think that that number (the WHO number) is very high. I think the number, personally, I would say the number is way under 1 percent.”
Democrats and media pundits blasted Trump for spreading “misinformation.”
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Yep, Orange Man bad.
ReplyDeleteTrump is tired of winning, problem is we’re not!
ReplyDeleteWait for it...we have Joe Biden to thank crafting a solution and incredible numbers while in lock down in his basement. C'mon man, give me a break, what we need is strong you know what I mean distancing or face shields to spread the Spanish Flu or something like back in the early 1800s when I had hairy legs or something.
ReplyDeleteWhen you provide multiple statistics one is bound to be correct. Which statistic are you referring to?
ReplyDelete3.4% is correct for Case Fatality Rate.
ReplyDelete0.5% is correct for current Death Rate (Mortality Rate), though we've not had 1 year yet. It will probably end up at about .67% to 1% by March 2021.
People are trying to confuse people, and make the numbers seem like they are less bad by comparing the original percentage everyone talked about (CFR) with a completely different percentage (Mortality Rate).
We still are on track for about 220,000~ people to possibly die from Covid-19 by March 1, 2021. People just now are just so anxious to get out and about and have things re-opened (right or wrong, I'm not in that argument, I don't think we can hide from this, it was about leveling off hospital numbers) - that they are willing to forget about people are dying from Covid. Some days 8 people a day in Wicomico County for instance. About 25-30 per day in Maryland.
So yes, if you know 100 people that get Covid, 3 of them are going to die. And yes, about 1 person in every 2000 total people will die this year from Covid.
He is always right. He said anyone who wanted a test back in March could get it. He said the idea of a pandemic was just a Democratic hoax. It must be tiring to be so accurate.
ReplyDelete