With the U.S. and China in the midst of a new round of high level trade talks, this Thursday marks 22 months since tariffs were launched and the trade war began.
Far from being “easy to win”, the trade war has lasted far longer than most analysts in the mainstream and alternative media predicted. In past articles, I have warned that the trade war itself is probably not meant to be won at all; rather, it is a massive distraction and a convenient scapegoat as global banks set the implosion of the Everything Bubble in motion. I continue to stand by this assessment, which is why I think it is unlikely that the current talks with China will accomplish much of anything.
This conclusion runs in stark contrast to all the hype we heard in the investment community in September. The way stock markets levitated, one would have thought a deal was assured. Never underestimate the power of blind optimism, I suppose. I believe there are a very limited number of end games to the meeting, none of which will result in an actual “deal”. However, it’s important to understand the dynamics at play here.
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The main reason will be intellectual property. Without China stealing them. They wouldn't exist.
ReplyDeleteAgree 7:25 AM. China has a full plate with a flagging economy, human rights protests in Hong Kong, and a receding ally base (i.e. the U.S.). Xi will have to come to grips pretty soon one would think but America needs to create safeguards from further pirating.
ReplyDeleteTrump should tell China he will not negotiate until after the 2020 election and that it will take at least 6 months to get trade with China on his agenda. Take the high road with the Chinese!
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