Q3 GDP Of 3.5% Beats Expectations As Inventories Soar

With the US economy firing on all four cylinders heading into the 3rd quarter, largely thanks to the latent effects from Trump's fiscal stimulus, moments ago the BEA reported that in its first estimate of Q3 GDP, the US economy continued to surprise to the upside, growing at an annualized rate of 3.5%, modestly below the second quarter's 4.2% print but above the 3.3% expected.

However, a quick look at the internals reveals some ugly details below the surface.

While Personal consumption was indeed strong, rising 4.0% in Q3 after 3.8% in Q2, the largest increase since Q4 2014, and contributing 2.69% of the bottom line 3.49% GDP print, the main reason why the US economy grew as fast as it did in the third quarter was a build up in inventories, which contributed 2.07%, or 59% of the bottom line number. This was the biggest quarterly inventory stocking since the first quarter of 2015.

More