located south of a low- to mid-level ridge. The cyclone is
expected to continue moving generally westward for the next 48
hours while it remains sheared. As Florence begins to strengthen
and become vertically stacked after 48 hours, it should begin to
turn west-northwestward, steered by a deeper flow regime. By days
4 and 5, an exceptionally strong blocking ridge is forecast to
develop between Bermuda and the Northeast U.S., keeping Florence
on a west-northwestward trajectory with an increase in forward
speed by the end of the forecast period.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in intensity is expected during the next day
or so, but restrengthening is forecast over the weekend. Florence
could become a hurricane again by Sunday.
Key Messages:
1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells are
affecting Bermuda and will begin to affect portions of the U.S. East
Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip
currents.
2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along
the U.S. East Coast next week has increased. However, there is
still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track
beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts. Interests near and along
the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through
the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.
NOAA/NHC
Yep. Time to start watching this. Looks like it could go from anywhere from Florida North. Big question is how well it gets reorganized now. Hopefully it goes in around N.C. and into the mountains and around The shore here. Not up the coast. And still hope it could bend out to sea after brushing Cape Hatteras. That happens alot. Starting to look more like Hugo, in 1989, though.
ReplyDeleteIt will come, it will hit the southern east coast and unfortunately give us a sh*tload of RAIN. Something we do not need.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I will take inches of rain over SNOW anyday!!!!
Hurricane Happy Hours next week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
omg
Deletenot a SNOWACANE
The military is not revealing their plans yet for this storm. My guess is extreme devastation somewhere near the Eastern Shore. Very sad. Best to get prepared for power outage and grocery store closings.
ReplyDeleteThe GFS model, one of the big 3, on the noon run, is the first to slow this down and take it northeast away from the coast.
ReplyDeleteSee if that's a trend. It would be more likely scenerio, if you look at the past 60 years.
At 5 the European model has started to fall in line with the GFS. Now bringing it more north. 3 model is taking it into the Bahamas, so it is now the outlier.
ReplyDeleteWill become a major hurricane in about a day or 2. Then where it goes depends on the high pressure ridge that develops to the north. Two models are now suggesting it will go more east than had been before. Still to soon to tell. But probabilities of a direct hit are lessed a bit.
hope it hits Obama's house
DeleteI nuju moved from Eastern Shore to Florida. Haven't been through a Florida hurricane yet. Never thought I would be leaving behind a hurricane on Easter Shore. My best - know my day is coming
ReplyDelete