Big Blue Bellyflop: Dem Advantage in Generic Ballot Hits New Low

For the very first time since April of 2017, when Real Clear Politics first started monitoring the average, the Democrat advantage in the generic ballot has dipped below 5 percent, to just 4.7 percent.

Until this week, Democrats enjoyed a steady average of a +5 percent advantage. Of late, that average has climbed as high as +13 percent. But since then, the erosion, in fits and starts, has steadily drifted downward, and now, at least in this election season, it is at a record low.

For the sake of context, in 2014, with a 2.4 percent GOP advantage in this same poll, Republicans picked up only 13 House seats.

During the 2010 mid-terms, with a 9.4 percent GOP advantage, Republicans picked up 63 House seats.

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