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Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Trump vs. Hillary: How Soon?

Upcoming Primaries: The northeast corridor now steps into the proverbial batter’s box, as the New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and Maryland primaries is just around the corner. New York voters will cast their ballots next Tuesday, while the other states’ electors have their chance on April 26th.

Several polls suggest that Donald Trump and former New York Sen. Hillary Clinton will easily win their respective Republican and Democratic New York primaries. But placing first there is not the only objective. Trump needs a major delegate haul to reinvigorate his campaign after losing Wisconsin on April 5th. It is critical for Trump to score a landslide delegate haul in order to return to the realm of obtaining a first ballot victory at the Republican National Convention. Therefore, he needs to garner in the neighborhood of 80 New York delegates from the pool of 95 in their very complicated delegate allocation system. In a combined statewide/congressional district allocation system (NY has 27 districts), attaining this number will be difficult even though all surveys project him to a healthy lead over Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

Ms. Clinton’s road to her nomination is much simpler than Mr. Trump’s. Now in a position where she needs only 30% of the outstanding delegates to clinch the nomination, taking the lion’s share of New York’s 291 Democratic delegates will go a long way to achieving her goal. Polling gives her low double-digit leads over Sen. Bernie Sanders, which might be considered an under-performance from a state that twice elected her Senator. Such a finish, however, will be more than enough to meet her state delegate projection quota.

Rigged! At least two candidates, one in each party, are complaining about both the Republican and Democratic nominating process. Donald Trump unleashed against the Colorado system that does not have a primary or caucus attached to the delegate allocation process. Rather, the Republicans meet in a state convention and choose the state’s 34 available delegates. Because Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) worked the process, he was rewarded with a sweep of the unbounded delegation and is apparently scoring a backdoor Winner-Take-All victory. A week earlier, the North Dakota Republican Party conducted a similar delegate apportionment state convention, also with Cruz faring considerably better than Trump, but without the chorus of complaints emanating from the Trump camp.

On the Democratic side, it was Hillary Clinton’s team who was accusing Sen. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) of trying to “rig” the convention. Ms. Clinton’s spokesman, Brian Fallon, stated that Sanders going after the announced Clinton Super Delegates to convince them to switch sides is his (Fallon’s) definition of “rigging” the nomination system. For the record, neither side is rigged, and all of the actions in both parties have been within the agreed upon party rules.


Source: AAN

3 comments:

  1. "For the record, neither side is rigged, and all of the actions in both parties have been within the agreed upon party rules."

    Agreed upon my whom? Not the voters. If you had a ballot that included election reform I wonder how many people would vote to change the current system.

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  2. But seriously,can any of us believe the impact Trump has made not only in the GOP,but in politics in general? Before he ran no one ever questioned ANYTHING,but we the people always saw the glaring problems.This campaign has been unlike anything before it,and I for one am loving it.

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  3. Don't want neither, they are not fit to represent this country one belongs behind bars the other is a nut case never know when or where that mouth might be discharged, maybe when speaking to other countries and cause the next world war. He can't communicate and does nothing but polarize and divide our country.

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