Will Trump Seal the Deal Tonight?

Jim Ellis takes a look at the Presidential Election

Republicans and Democrats in Arizona and Utah visit polling places and caucus meeting sites today, as do Idaho Democrats and Republicans in American Samoa. The big question is whether Ted Cruz can capture Utah with a majority vote, thereby making it a backdoor Winner-Take-All state. Arizona is the final large Winner-Take-All on the GOP side.

March 22 Lineup:

Arizona (Primary)

Republicans: 58 delegates; Winner-Take-All

Last Public Poll: Opinion Savvy – Fox 10 Phoenix (3/20; 588 AZ likely Republican primary voters through interactive voice response system): Donald Trump 46%; Sen. Ted Cruz 33%; Gov. John Kasich 17%.

Democrats: 85 delegates; proportional – Super Delegates announced: Ex-Sec. of State Hillary Clinton 5; Sen. Bernie Sanders 1.

Last Public Poll: Merrill/West Group (3/7-11; 300 AZ likely Democratic primary voters): Clinton 50%; Sanders 24%.

Utah (Caucus)

Republicans: 40 delegates; 15% vote threshold; converts to Winner-Take-All if a candidate breaks 50% of the statewide vote; converts to 0% threshold if less than three candidates exceed 15%.

Last Public Poll: Y2 Analytics (3/17-19; 500 UT likely Republican caucus attenders): Cruz 53%; Kasich 29%; Trump 11%.

Democrats: 37 delegates; proportional – Super Delegates announced: Clinton 2; Sanders 0.

Last Public Poll: Dan Jones & Assoc/Deseret News (3/8-15; 194 UT likely Democratic primary voters): Sanders 52%; Clinton 44%.

Idaho (Democratic Caucus)

Democrats: 27 delegates; proportional – Super Delegates announced: Clinton 1; Sanders 0.

Last Public Poll: No available public data

American Samoa (Republican Territorial Caucus)

Republicans: 9 delegates; unbound delegation; the six at-large and three RNC delegates may vote as they please throughout the GOP convention.

Last Public Poll: No available public data


Source: AAN