The Path to the Presidency

The critical March 15th primaries were held during the week, and they proved as definitive as predicted; in fact, even more so. The mild surprise came on the Democratic side as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton swept all five primaries. Her victories allowed her to surpass the 1,550 mark in regular and Super Delegate commitment or announced support. This is almost double Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 800+ number, and puts her within site of the 2,383 delegate votes to officially clinch the party nomination. Effectively, the March 15th primaries in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio allowed her to deliver the clinching blow that she was looking for on March 1st. It is apparent that this nomination campaign is nearing its end.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump took four of the five state primaries, but losing Winner-Take-All Ohio to the state’s Governor, John Kasich, keeps the door open for Trump’s remaining opponents to force a contested convention. After Trump’s strong victory in Winner-Take-All Florida, home state Sen. Marco Rubio suspended his presidential campaign. His 172 pledged delegates, earned in previous primaries and caucuses, remain in abeyance. Sen. Rubio can release the delegates, and then they would become unbound votes, or he can keep them. In the latter scenario, these individuals would vote for Rubio on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention. This could be a meaningful group if Trump does not have the necessary 1,237 votes to claim the nomination.

Though Trump is now in the 675-range for delegates, he still needs approximately 55-57% of the remaining pool to reach the victory plateau. Kasich and Sen. Ted Cruz working together to strategically deny Trump delegates especially in Winner-Take-All by congressional district states (Wisconsin, Maryland, Connecticut, Indiana, California) could conceivably keep the race leader from winning on the first ballot. Most delegates become freed on the second ballot, meaning the voting could continue for several rounds. The convention will remain in session until a nominee is chosen.

The next set of primaries and caucuses will take center stage on March 22nd, and features voting in Arizona and Utah for both parties. Democrats will vote in Idaho, Republicans in American Samoa. Arizona, with 58 Republican delegates, is the last of the large Winner-Take-All states.


Source: AAN