New CPR Analysis-Chesapeake Bay TMDL at Risk of Failure

One of the Obama administration's signature environmental achievements was establishing the Chesapeake Bay TMDL, an ambitious multi-jurisdiction plan for eliminating the nutrient and sediment pollution that have choked the world's largest estuary and devastated its renowned blue crab and oyster populations.

The Bay-wide TMDL was established in 2010, with goals of reducing nitrogen loads by 25 percent, phosphorus loads by 24 percent, and sediment loads by 20 percent by 2025.

We're approaching the midpoint of this plan, and a new analysis by CPR Member Scholar Rena Steinzor and Chesapeake Bay Policy Analyst Evan Isaacson finds serious trouble ahead. In Countdown to 2017: Five Years In, Chesapeake Bay TMDL at Risk Without EPA Enforcement, the authors explain that while some states are in a position to meet their overall 2017 targets, Pennsylvania's utter failure to limit pollution from its agricultural sector endangers the entire effort.

The report also shows that much of the progress made in other states has come largely from a single sector - wastewater treatment. Wastewater pollution reductions represent "low-hanging fruit" that has now been picked. Further substantial progress in the area is simply not available, meaning that the states will need progress in the other major sectors - agriculture, stormwater, and septic systems.

The new report looks at progress toward meeting the Bay TMDL's 2025 goal on a sector-by-sector and state-by-state basis. It provides a unique big picture view of the situation.