The Recessions Are Underway

"People's confidence that the consumer can somehow offset this industrial recession that we've had is really being shaken to the core with the disappointing numbers from some of these major retailers"

- James Abate, CIO of Centre Funds.

Recessions Are Underway

China drove the recent economic boom, just as it is behind the recent malaise. A turnaround in Chinese demand would certainly change things but the current data does not look promising.

For China’s trade partners, it means recession today. Only Germany and the US look positioned to weather the storm. Expect the next macroeconomic leg down to start in January. Between now and then, data will continue to weaken incrementally. Expect urgent Central Bank intervention in Taiwan, Korea, Brazil, and Australia.

It’s Not a US Recession… Yet

The US economy may be only 30% dependent on exports, but a sudden drop still hurts. Especially when GDP is growing only 2%.

The domestic hit this year from the downturn in commodities is well known. Falling prices and production immediately led to lower capital expenditure (CAPEX) spending on pipelines, extraction equipment, and so on. That extended to basic industrial component suppliers like pumps and fasteners, among others.

US exports pulled down as global customers got whacked.

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