A Letter To The Editor 8-18-15

Today, as I do most days, I checked the NYSE pre-market activity. I found that futures were up..... And then dropped after the manufacturing numbers from New York were much much lower than anticipated. I decided to back away from today's data and look at recent past activity. I found that recently most numbers were predicted by the "experts" to be higher which pushed the market higher and when earnings came in lower than expected the market plunged. Common sense....right? Then I backed up a little more. 

I looked at the Dot Com "bubble" before it popped. The so called experts were proclaiming that not even Alan Greenspan could slow the tech market.......and people invested. Millions were lost. 

I looked even further back to the benchmark event that changed the lives of Americans forever - the Great Depression. Just prior to the collapse of the stock market the experts of that time were selling the stock market to investors claiming that the economy would never slow down causing people to invest heavily. And we all know what happened next. Even Herbert Hoover in 1930 immediately following the collapse was stating publicly that the depression was over. History shows that it clearly was just beginning. 

We are continuously being sold lies by people who benefit financially on our losses. We can look back 100 years and find undeniable examples of this. I'm not some liberal hater of "rich white guys". I'm very conservative - but I'm also a realist. While investing in the stock market can be lucrative it can also be a vehicle by which you can be lured into a situation where your life's savings can be stripped from you. Many of the Wall Street experts exist solely to boost your confidence in a market they know has failed fairly regularly since the Great Depression by convincing you to ignore facts that are right in front of your face. These facts do not paint a pretty picture for the global economy. 

Some of these facts? 

Oil prices are down. But isn't that good? NO not this low. Oil prices this low indicates our global oil market is glutted. Why? Because globally manufacturing is down....because demand is down. This is indicative of a slowing economy - worldwide. Want to add insult to injury? When the sanctions on Iran are lifted the global oil stockpiles will even be higher. Iran has millions of barrels of oil ready for market sitting in tankers in the gulf. This will happen overnight when the sanctions are formally lifted. The oil companies will be laying off thousands when this occurs. Those who are laid off will not be purchasing as many manufactured goods......you can see where this goes. 

The reduction of the size of our military will reduce the number of military, contracts will be reduced, and military contractors will be laying off people. 

The IMF meets in October to decide if the greenback will remain the worlds reserve currency. Many people believe that our dollar will lose that status. If so, trillions of dollars will migrate out of this country and our ability to borrow money from other countries at a low interest rate will go away. BIG PROBLEM since are tax revenues can't service the interest on our current debt. 

Folks history repeats itself because human beings are creatures of habit. 

Look at the world around you. It's spiraling out of control. Big government we can't afford. Wars we can't afford. Financially supporting countries we can't afford. Entitlements we can't afford. Borrowing money we can't ever pay back. What does this mean to you all? We are bankrupt!! Where does the money come from to pay for these things? Us! That means when they call the note WE are bankrupt. 

It's been said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. Hmmmmmm.... 

Our stock market is artificially high now. When it "corrects" who will lose? You and me. Don't let these experts convince you all is fine the way people were convinced in the hours and days before the collapse of 1929.