Democrats in Desperation

In the battle for Senate control, analysts from left to right give the GOP an edge.

Two things are becoming clear about this November’s U.S. Senate races. First, more and more analysts now say Republicans are likely to win at least the 51 seats needed for control of the Senate. Second, the result is that Democrats will run even more desperately negative campaigns in an effort to hold onto power. But don’t expect too much media thumb-sucking about “attack ads” this fall, since the worst are almost certain to come from the left.

In the battle for Senate control, analysts from left to right give the GOP an edge. Mark Blumenthal, the pollster for the Huffington Post, this week gave Republicans a 55 percent chance of taking back the Senate, which the Democrats have held since 2007. Among the close races, he says Arkansas and Louisiana are likely to tilt Republican, while Colorado and Iowa are “truly 50–50 races.”

Other analysts ranging from Larry Sabato to Charlie Cook to FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver also give the GOP the edge. Silver, who predicted Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection on the nose, says the GOP has a 65 percent chance of capturing the Senate. In his analysis: “Republicans can win the Senate solely by winning Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, states which voted for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama by an average of 19 percentage points in 2012.”

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