A Red-Flashing JOLT: Manufacturing Job Openings Signal Recession Dead Ahead

Contrary to the April nonfarm payroll data, today's JOLTS report was simply ugly. First, the total number of Job openings of 4014K, missed significantly the expected number of 4125K, dropping 111K last month, and the worst since December's 212K tumble when as everyone recalls, the weather was extensively scapegoated as the reason why the economy is not performing as the priced to perfection central planning expects it to.

And now that weather excuses no longer can be abused, the experts finally repeated what we first said in November when we reported that "The Time To Hike Rates Is Now According To The Beveridge Curve" starting with Stone McCarthy:

... Typically openings precede payroll gains. Over the past 6 months
openings increased by only 116,000. This isn't consistent with the
payroll growth of late ...

... the relationship between openings and the unemployment rate, the co-called Beveridge Curve, suggests that there has been a structural shift in the curve typical of an increase in structural unemployment and perhaps a higher NAIRU than generally thought....

Then from Bank of Tokyo:

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