Iowa Caucuses Key

For some time it seemed that the Iowa caucuses would be unimportant in the 2012 Republican presidential primary. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), especially after her big win at the Ames straw poll, appeared to be a shoo-in. Burned by his loss in 2008, Mitt Romney was determined not to expend much effort there. But a lot has changed since August.

A new NBC-Marist poll highlights the dangers for both Bachmann and Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Romney is leading among caucus-goers with 23 percent, followed by Herman Cain at 20 percent. Far behind is Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.) at 11 percent. More than a dozen points behind Romney, Bachmann and Perry each draw 10 percent. Much can happen before January, and unless it does Bachmann and Perry could very well find that their presidential runs end in Iowa.

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