Why Dems Are On The Verge Of Losing The House

The reasons why Dems are on the verge of losing the House… And why Republicans could fall short… Why the anger and high emotions we’re seeing feel different from past cycles… GOP continues to expand the House playing field… Our primer on midterm turnout… Wrapping up the final Crist-Meek-Rubio debate… Matt Lauer’s challenge to Brown and Whitman… And profiling PA-17.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg

*** Why Dems are on the verge of losing the House: Over the last two days, we’ve explained how Republicans could win control of the House, or how Democrats could be able to hold on to their majority. Today, we turn to the why. Here’s why Democrats are on the verge of losing the House and maybe (though much less likely) the Senate. Part of it would be history (a president's party almost always loses seats in a midterm cycle). Part of it would be the nation's disinclination of one-party control. Much of it would be due to the nation's high unemployment rate (9.6%), and the economic stimulus' inability to reduce it substantially over the past two years. Just those four items in one stew would be enough to put Democrats on the verge of a loss in House control, but it doesn't end there. Another culprit would be Democrats’ inability to sell the public on the health-care law and their inability to fire up their base. Outside GOP money has played a role, too, by expanding the playing field. And there's this: Democrats, after two years in FULL control, were unable to deliver on their biggest thematic promise to change the way the Washington works.

*** Why Republicans could fall short: And if Republicans are unable to win the House and rack up substantial Senate gains? Part of it would be the sheer number of seats they need to gain to win majorities (39 for the House and 10 for the Senate). Part of it would be the Tea Party pushing the GOP too far to the right, especially in non-GOP friendly states and districts. And much of it would be due to the Republican Party's inability to develop new ideas after its defeats in '06 and '08 (after all, our poll shows the GOP with a lower fav/unfav than the Dem Party).

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