REPUBLICANS COULD SWEEP THE LOWER SHORE THIS YEAR!

Sure, there’s “Dewey Beats Truman” risk in this prediction. But consider the data discussed below, together with the much greater Republican motivation and energy shift away from all Democrat candidates now that the Obama bubble has burst and O’Malley has revealed himself as the wrong person for the job. I’ll take that risk, with the exception of a few races in which an incumbent Democrat is probably unbeatable.

In the Lower Shore the Democratic majority in registration has vanished during the past decade. In 2000 it was were over 50% in all three counties: Somerset – 60%; Wicomico – 51%; Worcester – 51%. By 2008, the height of the Obama bubble, things were much different: Somerset – 57%; Wicomico - 47%; Worcester - 45%. Since then the numbers have not changed greatly, but precise data is not readily available. To be sure, much of the Democrat decline is due to increase in registered “independent” voters.

The shift in political sentiment on the Lower Shore in recent years can be seen in the margin by which Bob Ehrlich carried those counties in 2002, when (statewide) he beat the worst Democrat candidate in recent memory, “KKT”, and 2006, when (statewide) he was beaten by O’Malley. Although he lost his statewide margin and the margin by which he carried most counties where he won in both years was reduced, in two -- Wicomico and Worcester -- his margin in 2006 was greater than in 2002.

In the local and state legislative races, in which there are no credible independent or libertarian candidates, most of the registered independent voters are likely to vote Republican, not to mention the Democrat crossover voters, many of whom will relish the chance to take another shot at O’Malley. These factors will compound the Republican surge that we have already seen in the primary turnout this year – in Wicomico County, there were more Republican than Democrat voters.

Against that background this is how we see some local races:

Charles Otto is a likely winner over McCready by a small margin as Somerset remains the most Democrat of the Lower Shore counties, but the Wicomico voters make the difference.

Michael James will beat James Mathias by a hair for the seat now held by Lowell Stoltzfus.

Norman Conway (a respected Democrat) and Michael McDermott will win in their district.

Rudolph Cane will beat Dustin Mills in their district, where the Democrat majority continues.

Rich Colburn remains unbeatable – some things never change.

In the contested Wicomico County Council races, Stevie Prettyman will win, probably by a mile, and the at-large seats will go Republican (Culver and Holloway) by a comfortable margin over Democrats candidates who want to repeal the tax revenue cap in Wicomico County (Cowall and Taylor). Bob Caldwell will nose out David MacLeod. The only Democrat winner could be Sheree Sample-Hughes, who has a safe district due to the registration advantage there.

The Wicomico County Exec. contest is too bizarre to call at this point, but there is growing “I’m sick of Rick” sentiment. Ollinger, despite his non-existent campaign to date, got more votes (4,853) in the primary than Pollitt (3,621), who faced two opponents. The votes for his opponents (1,803) were mostly cast due to disfavor with Pollitt and could result in Ollinger’s victory if those voters turn out in November. And Ollinger could run a more aggressive campaign in the next month or so – he’s putting up some road signs and having a fund raiser this week that could yield big bucks. Pollitt’s role as O’Malley’s campaign guru in Wicomico County could be a decisive factor (along with that land he wanted the County to buy for $18,000 per acre and his whining about the tax revenue cap, etc.).

Turnout by disappointed Democrat voters could also be decisive in deciding who will become the next State’s Attorney in Wicomico County. Matt Maciarello is actively wooing the supporters of Davis Ruark, many of whom regard Seth Mitchell to be an opportunist mud-slinger. This one could become the gunfight of the 2010 election in Wicomico County.

We are not familiar with the dynamics of the local races in Somerset County and Worcester County, other state legislative races and the Kratovil-Harris race for the 1st Congressional District to make a prediction about them. Those who are qualified to make a meaningful analysis and prediction about any of them are invited to opine.

[primary vote numbers above do not include some absentee and provisional ballots].