First Congressional District Voters Want Change

First Congressional District Voters Want Change

The Tarrance Group polled likely voters this week in the First
Congressional District of Maryland for the Andy Harris for Congress
campaign. The results show that 52% of the likely voters would vote
for Andy Harris, 39% for the incumbent Congressman, Frank Kratovil.

"These results reflect what I've been hearing from hard-working,
tax-paying families throughout the First District over the last year.
Voters are upset with a Congressman and a Democrat-controlled Congress
run by Nancy Pelosi that spends too much, taxes too much, and can't
bring the unemployment rate down. They want real change in 2010 -
returning fiscal sanity to Washington and jobs to the First District
of Maryland" said Andy Harris, a Republican running for Congress in
the First District.

The Tarrance Group's poll memo is attached. Please contact the Andy
Harris for Congress Campaign at 443-279-8781, or media@andyharris.com
for comment.

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MEMORANDUM
TO: SEN. ANDY HARRIS
FROM: BRIAN C. TRINGALI
KEVIN HUDAK
RE: FRANK KRATOVIL NOT LIKELY TO RETURN TO CONGRESS
DATE: NOVEMBER 19, 2009
______________________________________________________________________________
The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the following findings from our latest survey of voters across Maryland’s First Congressional District. The Andy Harry for U.S. Congress campaign commissioned The Tarrance Group to conduct a telephone survey of N=300 “likely” voters throughout the district. A random sample of this type is likely to yield a margin of error of +5.8% in 95 out of 100 cases. Responses to the survey were gathered November 15-17 – although few respondents were called on Monday because of a Ravens game that evening.

Incumbent Democrat Congressman Frank Kratovil is not likely to be a part of the next Congress once it is convened in 2011. Kratovil has had a tough time of it since his election to the open seat last year. The evidence of this is borne out by our most recent survey of Maryland’s First Congressional District.

Despite his close loss in 2008, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, Andy Harris would be elected with a clear majority of the vote. Fifty-two percent (52%) of the voters are supportive of Harris, even before the race has heated up. Kratovil garners just 39% of the vote today.

At the same time, 88% of the voters have heard of Andy Harris – in part because of his previous campaign in 2008. In addition, Dr. Harris has been working hard already this cycle and has clearly benefitted from his early start on the 2010 contest.

Ballot for U.S. Congress

Andy Harris 52%
Undecided 10%
Frank Kratovil 39%

Frank Kratovil’s weakness in this district might seem startling but it is backed up by a poor image and a low re-elect score. While Kratovil is well known, only 43% of the voters hold a favorable image and 30% are unfavorable toward him. At a 91% awareness level, most of the voters have formed an opinion of the incumbent.

Kratovil Image

Aware 91%
Favorable 43%
Unfavorable 30%
Ratio 1.5:1

The soft re-elect question asks if Frank Kratovil “deserves to be re-elected or if it is time to give a new person a chance.” Only 29% of the voters in this district think the incumbent deserves to be re-elected. Further, 49% of the voters think a new person would do the better job. This reelect score is extremely low. Again, voters in the district seem to have already made up their minds that they will not be returning Frank Kratovil to Congress.

Kratovil Soft Re-elect

Deserves re-election 29%
Unsure/depends 23%
New person 49%

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THE TARRANCE GROUP
www.tarrance.com