"The Commerce Department said Tuesday that construction of new homes and apartments jumped 17.2 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 532,000 units. That was better than the 500,000-unit pace that economists had expected and came after construction fell in April to a record low of 454,000 units."
OK Folks, WHERE! Quite frankly, I'm sick and tired of our government releasing such BS numbers any more. One day construction/sales are up, the next they're back down again and the following day they're back up again. That is, if you follow the Daily Times.
It's pretty simple. How many of YOU know someone who was transferred out of the area or even into the area. Take 10 friends you have known for quite a while and start doing the math. If ONE friend transferred to another area or moved here, that's 10%. Do YOU know of 17.2% of your friends that just had a new home built or purchased one? OK, so let's say that's bogus. Let's get to their point. If there's been a 17.2% increase in new homes/apartments, who's buying/renting them and where have they been built? 17.2% is a pretty HUGE number.
Even if YOU wanted to buy a new home right now your chances are slim you'll get financed. It reminds me of all the new Dodge/Chrysler Commercials now on television suggesting everything is now better for them and there's a bright light/future in the horizon. I can see it now. Honey, the MSM says new homes built are up 17.2% and Dodge says things are all OK now. I think it's time we make that big step, put the house we bought 2 years ago on the market, get rid of that 2007 Chevy we bought and get us a new Dodge too.
So tell me you have 17.2% of your friends THAT STUPID?
They go on to say, "A healthy home market is needed to support an economic recovery." So let's BS everyone into believing we're almost there and new home/apartment construction is up 17.2%. I highly doubt developers are going to buy their crap either.
The ONLY thing up 17.2% almost daily is gas prices. Thanks Obama. The only CHANGE we need is a President who won't lie to us any more. Not that the last few Administrations were any better but this one wants us to be STUPID.
Perhaps they forgot about all the properties going up for tax sale this week? Oh, that's right, they're not new either!
Month to Month was 17.2% but not seasonally adjusted. This is just plain BS as you state.
ReplyDeleteMeaningless without stating what it was last May. Which I found. The rest of the story.
"This is 17.2 percent (±14.4%) above the
revised April estimate of 454,000, but is 45.2 percent (±5.8%) below the May 2008 rate of 971,000. "
Terrible news made to look like a rose.
P.S. The stupid copyright annoyance message is a real pain. I get it every time I try to open anything in a new tab. Unacceptable. I am not trying to steal anything just see it in the first place.
What burns me up about Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep is them running commercials period!
ReplyDeleteThey don't have any money! OR DO THEY?!
You have to actually get out of the Delmarva area to see the impact of the construction going on. There is a ton on housing going up in Baltimore, Washington D.c. area, Annapolis.
ReplyDeleteThere are planty of new homes and apartments going up.
Prove it! I have a Son in the Annapolis area with a Framing Company and you're wrong! There's not a 17% increase this month over last month, nor this month over last years numbers. I also have friends in the Balt./Wash./Annap. area with new home construction companies and they're dying for work. Sadly these people didn't park their earnings when things were through the roof and they're truly suffering. I wouldn't have posted this unless I knew people in the business and I'm telling you, you're wrong.
ReplyDeleteJoe,
ReplyDeleteYou are touching on something important here. Our government is lying to us! Many people will say, of course, they always lie, how can you tell a politician is lying? His lips are moving, etc etc etc.
News Flash: Our government is lying to us and stealing from us. Wake up America! Both political parties are controlled by the same international bankers who have bankrupted our Country.
Yesterday's news was that the economy was still declining, but the rate of decline has slowed! Frankly, all I've seen on the bid tables are rehabs of low income housing and an occasional new one. I guess Obamaman has to ready our new homes for when we all lose ours.
ReplyDeleteI was on my way from sby to Richmond last week, a trip I've been making my whole life. There are several new home communities which are springing up on Rt. 301, between 50 and the VA line....not just modest homes, but big ole McMansion types with the big fancy entrances and signs saying "starting in the $600's".
ReplyDeleteI was/am amazed at this. This is Prince Georges County I'm talking about, some Charles County. Can you believe it? I wouldn't have if I hadn't seen it with my own Realtor eyes.
Once Again As A contractor In Salisbury/Princess Anne And Surrounding Areas I Agree This Is BS.If This Is True Joe Please Find Out Who The Developer/GC Is,Because Id liek To Get In On Some Of The Action.Its All been Small Remodels For me lately And Im Ready For Something New.
ReplyDeleteP.S My Pricing And Quality Of Work Cannot Be Beat!!!!
Sorry Joe Figured Id Try Get Little Advertising In While I was At It :)
Look at this http://www.census.gov/const/bpsa.pdf.
ReplyDeleteThis is the entire picture going way back.
The current slump started way back in January 2006 (when the Democrats took both houses). It really accelerated when it became clear around July 2008 Obama would win. Dropped like lead balloon when he won.
This is the worst by far in the last 50 years this covers. But only since Obama was elected.
Its all lies meant to lull people into a false state of financial security.
ReplyDeleteOh please people. You need to get out of this area to see what is really gong one.
ReplyDeleteThere is construction happening. You need to pay attention to it.
It's a feeble attempt to boost consumer confidence. We haven't begun to feel the full effect of this mess yet.
ReplyDeleteThe housing industry is up where areas are offering jobs such as the Balt/DC corridor. Salisbury and some of the Delmarva area is not offering work for the people who would buy these homes. Also the Rehoboth Beach area has also experienced home growth.
ReplyDeleteThe growth is indeed out there it is just not in this area. Salsibury needs to do more to attract business and keep business in the area.
Yes the cost of living here is low compared to the Balt/DC corridor but if the jobs are not here why would the home industry increase the growth.
As an architect, I have many contracts for new homes elsewhere but not in this area. The figures are indeed correct.
Just to add another point. I happened to log onto the City of Salisbury's web site. It states in their statistics that the Salisbury area has a 58% of rental occupancy. That is quite a significant number for an area that could be a major coastal hub.
ReplyDeleteI have only lived in this arae for 2 years and moved here due to a job offer. But if you are a resident could some one tell me why the growth in Salisbury is so slow? Is it fear of municipal growth?
It is a great place to live. But what is the difficulty with bringing business and growth to this area?
This may require a side article but I am curious.
Thanks for hearing me out.
Obama is as much to blame for what is going on as Ireton is for the state of Salisbury. The problems are inherited from previous administration. Going to take sometime to correct it all. It is not going to change instantly.
ReplyDeleteMy guess the apartment construction is up because so many people have lost their homes to foreclosure and need a place to live.
ReplyDeleteI'm having nthe best year in the real estate business ever. No joke. It's only as bad as YOU want it to be.
ReplyDelete11:26 is right. Using Delmarva as a gauge of the economy is a horrible idea. IMHO the local economy here sucks. NO JOBS!! Then if you do get a job here you can enjoy the favoritism that runs rampant. Housing here is cheaper than BMore but when there arent jobs to support that real estate market how can you compare the two. 24% of Salisbury lives below the poverty level and a new construction home isnt affordable when 1/4 of the population is poor. Local Govt isnt doing anything to attract new businesses that actually pay something and there are a million empty buildings around. I have family in the midwest and the local housing market there is so steady and even due to the local economy that actually has REAL jobs. This area has typical resort problems, high real estate prices(due to the beach) that the local job market cant support. So the ppl that live here are either nearly poor or are extremely well-off.
ReplyDeleteObama has very little to do with the price increase of gas recently. Give all the credit to the oil speculators creating artificial demand and OPEC cutting production.
ReplyDeleteI was in Baltimore this weekend, huge mix use complex going up near the Lyric theater. Parking garage, retail,residential.
ReplyDeleteI bought a new home last September and over the last year over about a dozen homes have been built and bought. My mother just built a new home, my mother-in-law just built a new home, my grandmother-in-law just built a new home, my step sister just built a new home and my cousin just built a new home. All within the last year! People are building new homes-face it, so what?!
ReplyDeleteMy wife and I bought our home new because of the high market prices of existing homes were ridiculous. People were trying to get out of their mistakes when we were looking to buy. There was no way that we would have been able to get a previously owned home of the same quality at the price we paid for our new home!
As for financing, we were able to get financing really easily; although our interest rate could be lower (5.79%), we financed through the builder's in-house company. We also had a dual agent so we didn't need to pay out double in commission and saved even more. And since it was an FHA program, we only needed 3% down. So if you ask me I think it was pretty SMART of us to buy a new home since we were able to buy something brand new (Not other people's problems), we got affordable financing, a low down payment so we still had our emergency fund intack, AND we bought below market value so we actually still have equity in our home unlike most of the people buying previously owned homes these days. I will NEVER have to sell my house lower than what I paid for it!
Where is the STUPID in that Joe? And the numbers in this post aren't saying that 17% of people are buying new homes...they simply said that there was a 17% increase of new homes BUILT from april to may. In addition, new home numbers were 'down' in april and 'up' in May. Look at it this way-The U.S. has an 1% annual population growth rate which comes up to roughly about 5,660,389 additional persons per month! Divide that by your standard 2.5 persons per household and you'll get 2,264,155 additional households or 'units' are needed per a month just to house the additional growth.
So, for 78,000 ADDITIONAL units to be built in May NATIONWIDE isn't really that much is it? 532,000 units NATIONWIDE really isn't that much either. Technically, they didn't even build enough to house the growth!
Keep in mind that these are housing units built, not necessarily owner-occupied houses. These could be rentals, condos, apartments, single-family homes, duplexes, townhomes, etc...they are all considered 'housing units'
Joe, I read your blog religously and while I agree with alot of what you say on here, do the numbers first before you call me stupid! Because quite frankly, I just made you look stupid
The data isn't saying what you think it's saying. This post rests on a really obvious statistical error.
ReplyDeleteOut of 305 million Americans, according to April's rate of homebuying, 454,000 homes would be built in a year. According to May's rate, 532,000 homes would be built in a year. That's it.
This data isn't saying 17.2 percent of your friends just bought a house last month. It's saying the RATE at which all Americans bought houses went up 17.2 percent. We're talking about changes to a very, very small rate - way less than 1 percent of Americans in any given year buy homes - so any change is going to be significant as a percentage of what the rate was before.
This is what it would take for construction of new homes to jump 17 percent in Wicomico County: if 100 people bought a home in April, 117 would need to buy a home in May. That's it.
Statistics, like guns, shouldn't be played with by people who don't know what they're doing.
While those are some great examples, you still haven't sold me on the 17.2% increase factor, nor do I believe you have sold many others on it.
ReplyDeleteYou go right on believing this Country is moving forward in the right direction. Certainly there will be circumstances where it makes sense to buy new and I'm glad it worked for you. However, most people cannot sell their home in this market, especially if they purchased their current home in the last 5 years.
Enjoy it in good health.
anon 9:17 and 9:19 both had it right...it is just a rate of increase-17% of people are not buying new homes. I wouldn't even say that 1% of people are buying new homes. They are just saying the there were 17% more new homes built in May over April. That's not hard to believe, especially when it says "that construction of new homes and apartments..." CONSTRUCTION being the key word, not THE SALE OF.... Just because they are built doesn't mean that they are sold or even occupied.
ReplyDeleteAnybody can make statistics look good-that's the beauty of stats! I wouldn't say that the numbers are lying, but they are portrayed in a favorable way. I'm not saying that this means the economy is heading in the right direction, but clearly you misinterpretted the article Joe. You know that you can admit to being wrong once in a while?
If you say so.
ReplyDeleteHopefully this will put some of the crap builders out of business like Jimmy Harris of Hebron. He owns Quantico Creek builders, formerly a partnet in J&C Builders.
ReplyDeletePeople like him need to find a new line of work.
What this data means is that in a city of 100,000 people, under April's homebuying rate, 150 of those 100,000 people would have bought a new home this year. But going by May's rate, 175.8 of those people would have bought a new home over that year - because 175.8 is 117.2 percent of 150. That's what a 17.2 percent increase represents.
ReplyDeleteIt's not a matter of 'selling' you on a 17.2 percent change in the rate of homebuying. The data is the data. Either you take the time to comprehend what the statistic means, or you don't. Otherwise you're misleading your readers, and yourself.
Of course there are homes being built. You will see some development.
ReplyDeleteBut the full report going back to 1960 shows this to be the most anemic time by 50%. 500,000 in a country of 300,000,000 is very very low. .1% or so. It was 2,000,000 as recently as 2004. It is down by half since the Democrats won congress.
You are completely naive if you think Democrats taxing all of us to death does not affect house building. Many people can no longer afford a new house after all the new taxes are paid. Businesses look forward and have already taken into account all the huge tax increases Obama has already announced. That is why housing is way down not up. This was a very cherry picked statistic. One cherry on a big tree. All the other cherries were rotten.
This Increase cause me stop my home construction.
ReplyDelete