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Thursday, November 06, 2008

Maryland Politics Watch Believes Andy Harris Has The Advantage


GO HERE to read their article.
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6 comments:

  1. AnonymousNovember 6, 2008 at 10:47 AM

    Yeah, but here is a telling statement from that analysis: "In the Eastern Shore precincts, Kratovil leads by 97,438-78,009"...
    In the most CONSERVATIVE arae of District 1, Kratovil won an overwhelming majority! Why does this site still put forth Harris as the best for the shore - even when a vast majority of his own party rejected him? any comments?

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousNovember 6, 2008 at 11:20 AM

    The analysis in that linked post is based on assumptions from 2006 results that are not appropriate. Here's a comment made there:

    According to the MD B of E, as of Nov. 5, more RETURNED a-ballots by Dems -- much different than in 2006, it appears -- and that ratio may also apply in the Western part of D-1 (or Reps. have only a narrow edge there).

    The 2006 political situation in D-1 was completely different -- many Dems voted for W. Gilchrest.

    There could be significant Rep. a-ballots that cast for Pres. only or for K, too, especially on the Shore.

    Signifcant other/unaffiliated ballots have been requested -- those may tend strongly Dem.

    P-ballots should tend Dem.

    Ergo: Kratovil will likely win!

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousNovember 6, 2008 at 11:21 AM

    O-solo-mio . . .

    Fat Lady

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousNovember 6, 2008 at 11:28 AM

    Don't believe everything you read!

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousNovember 6, 2008 at 11:29 AM

    Joe:

    Are you covering today's count here at the Board of Elections in Salisbury? How are the numbers going?

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousNovember 6, 2008 at 12:43 PM

    Here is the received ballot data, based on the Board's website info thru Nov 4:

    Total 25,539

    Dem 11,371
    Rep 10924
    Other 3244

    Eastern Shore Counties

    Total 15,961
    Dem 7445
    Rep 5363
    Other 3153

    Western Shore Counties (MD-1 Total minus ES)

    Total 9578
    Dem 3926
    Rep 5561
    Other 91
    ********************************

    What's striking is that the last category ("Other") is almost entirely on the Shore, which may be significant for Kratovil if the D&R ballots are mostly along party lines.

    ReplyDelete

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