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TO: Andy Harris for Congress
FR: Arthur Finkelstein
RE: Polling Results, Key Findings
DATE: July 17, 2008
Key Findings
• Andy Harris continues to grow his lead over Frank Kratovil among voters in MD-01. Recent Polling shows total Harris support at 44.3% and total Kratovil support
at 28.3%, giving Harris a 16 point lead in the Congressional race. Furthermore, Harris is closing in on the 51% mark already - midway through July.
Q2. - IF THE ELECTION FOR US CONGRESS WERE HELD TODAY, AND THE CANDIDATES WERE ANDY HARRIS, THE REPUBLICAN, AND FRANK KRATOVIL THE DEMOCRAT, FOR WHOM WOULD YOU VOTE?
- 300 Total
- 133 44.3 COMBO HARRIS
- 120 40.0 Vote Harris
- 13 4.3 Lean Harris
- 85 28.3 COMBO KRATOVIL
- 77 25.7 Vote Kratovil
- 8 2.7 Lean Kratovil
- 82 27.3 FIRM UNDECIDED
• Andy Harris continues to grow in favorablility among all voters in Maryland’s 1st
Congressional District. Harris’ Favorables have increased to 37.3%.
• Also, important to note, Harris has gained an almost 3 to 1 advantage
in Favorable opinions to Unfavorables among voters.
Q13. - PLEASE TELL ME WHETHER YOU HAVE A FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE OPINION OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING. IF YOU HAVE NO OPINION OR HAVE NEVER HEARD OF THE PERSON OR GROUP, JUST SAY SO.
"ANDY HARRIS"
- 300 Total
- 112 37.3 FAVORABLE
- 35 11.7 UNFAVORABLE
- 114 38.0 NO OPINION
- 39 13.0 NEVER HEARD OF
• Maryland voters continue to show an unfavorable opinion of Frank Kratovil with an upside down Unfavorable opinion expressed over a Favorable one. Kratovil’s
Unfavorable rating was 14.3%, while his Favorable was at 13.7%.
• Furthermore, 24% of MD-01 voters still have never heard of Kratovil – just shy of double that view him Favorably and twice as much as of voters that never heard
of Harris.
Q14. - PLEASE TELL ME WHETHER YOU HAVE A FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE OPINION OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING. IF YOU HAVE NO OPINION OR HAVE NEVER HEARD OF THE PERSON OR GROUP, JUST SAY SO.
"FRANK KRATOVIL"
- 300 Total
- 41 13.7 FAVORABLE
- 43 14.3 UNFAVORABLE
- 144 48.0 NO OPINION
- 72 24.0 NEVER HEARD OF
Conclusion
• Andy Harris’ commitment to Maryland families by: bringing economic accountability back to Washington; bringing energy costs down; and providing more affordable,
accessible healthcare is resonating strongly with Maryland’s first Congressional
District Voters.
• Frank Kratovil’s liberal positions and close ties to Gov. O’Malley are
viewed negatively among Maryland voters. Indicating, Kratovil’s positions appear out of sync with Maryland voters, who have a more unfavorable than favorable opinion of Kratovil.
Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates conducted a telephone survey of registered voters in Maryland’s 1st Congressional District on Tuesday, July 15th, 2008. With a sample size of 300 the margin of error is + 5.65 at the 95% confidence level.
Arthur J. Finklestein is a hardcore conservative operative. All I had to do was read the summary statements at the end of the poll results to know that I might find more reliable numbers elsewhere. And that's not a republican vs. democrat thing-- that's a matter of getting good, solid facts without any campaign spin.
ReplyDeleteI think the numbers pretty much say it all...bye bye Frankie!
ReplyDeleteSample size is VERY small and the margin of error is CRAZY large... It should be less than 3% to be taken seriousley as a study....
ReplyDeleteyou people clearly don't understand polls. statistically speaking, 1,001 people are a scientific study for the UNITED STATES! So 300 for the Eastern Shore is about right. Most polls conducted on the Shore only use about that many. And 5% is not a bad margin of error, despite what Frankie-Boys people say.
ReplyDeleteWhen I read the conclusions, I knew this was full of crap.
ReplyDeleteLegitimate polls and studies do not include statements like "voters prefer candidate X conservative family stances" and "the liberal tendencies of candidate Y."
That's pure propaganda talk.
Sorry. I'm technically still an undecided, but this just isn't working for me. I couldn't give a rat's behind what polls say. I want to know where candidates stand on issues, and I'll vote either party or independent depending on the issues, not the ideology. The more I hear of the ideology, the more turned off I get.
11:44, you couldn't be more correct.
ReplyDeleteThanks for posting.
That honey interviewing Andy is HOT!
ReplyDelete